z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

The week in review

The week of 5 December saw mixed economic news but stronger than expected US data dampened expectations of an easing in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This, in turn, caused a weakening in equity markets following the gains of the previous two weeks.
Published 13 December
4 mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
 1WK1MO3MOYTD1YR3YR5YR
FTSE All Share-1.232.711.740.441.503.863.74
Euro Stoxx 50-0.806.0210.93-5.08-3.055.385.16
S&P 500-3.355.16-2.85-16.18-14.369.5910.11
Japan Topix0.390.620.880.941.166.964.12
MSCI Asia Pac.1.6613.052.46-17.48-18.751.570.80
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.0.488.871.31-18.18-18.990.320.23
Jo’burg All Shares0.367.1710.176.048.3014.929.11
UK Gov’t Bonds-0.281.120.12-21.12-23.68-6.97-2.52
US Gov’t Bonds-0.413.73-0.64-11.31-11.27-2.290.18
Global Corp. Bonds-0.145.360.94-12.59-12.64-2.000.95
Emerg. Mkt. Local0.045.992.23-10.97-10.88-4.29-1.23
Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 9/12/2022.

The week of 5 December was a relatively quiet week but mixed in terms of economic data. The good news on the US economy proved bad news for equity markets.

In the US, the producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, came in higher than expected at 0.3% for November and 7.4% on a year-on-year basis. The services sector also saw an upswing in activity in November with the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) index rising to 56.5, against expectations for a decrease. Readings over 50 are a sign of economic expansion. US consumer sentiment also improved more than expected in early December. While this strong economic data is positive for the growth outlook, it is not helpful for the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its battle to control inflation. Hopes that the Fed might soon start to ease its interest rate rises were set back again.  Although, the labour market showed tentative signs of cooling as the weekly figure for continuing jobless claims increased to its highest level since early February.

In the euro area growth was revised higher in Q3 as gross domestic product (GDP) data showed the economy had expanded 0.3%, up from a previous estimate of 0.2%. Although the expectation is for slower growth over the next two quarters as higher energy prices and interest rates bite and impact both companies and consumers.

The UK saw a continued downturn in its services sector as the purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.8 in November, unchanged from October, and indicating an increasing likelihood of recession.

In other news, the Bank of Canada hiked its interest rates by 50 basis points despite plenty of speculation it would downshift the pace to 25 basis points, but it continues to monitor how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand.

Corporate news was light over the week, but the Federal Trade Commission sued to block Microsoft’s US$69 billion acquisition of Call of Duty maker Activision Blizzard over competition concerns. Apple scaled back its self-driving electric vehicle plans and postponed the car’s target launch date by about a year to 2026.

The week of 5 December saw equity markets down sharply following the gains of the previous two weeks. Emerging market equities (+8.9%) continued to do well on news from China of further easing in its COVID-19 restrictions and its subdued inflation, which remains at 1.6% year on year, allowing policymakers more space to stimulate the economy. Developed market equities (+6.3%) lagged. With growing concerns over a potential global recession, growth stocks (+8.1%) outperformed value (+5.2%), while large capitalisation stocks (+6.6%) led the way over small capitalisation stocks (+5.1%) over the last 30 days. Consumer discretionary (+9.2%) was the best performing sector, while energy (-3.8%) was the worst, as international oil prices (-16.1%) fell to their lowest level of the year at the prospect of weakening global demand.

In fixed income, there were positive returns for safe haven government bonds as yields continued to fall and the US 2s/10s Treasury curve closed at its most inverted of this cycle. This occurs when the 2-year Treasury note yield rises above the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is viewed by many as a sign of imminent recession. Investment grade bonds (+5.2%) continued to perform strongly.

ECONOMICS  
 Latest

Consensus

Forecast

UK GDP (QoQ)-0.2
UK PMI48.248.0
UK CPI (YoY)11.110.9
EU GDP (QoQ)0.3
EU PMI47.847.9
EU CPI (YoY)10.010.0
US GDP (QoQ)2.92.9
US PMI56.5
US CPI (YoY)7.77.3

What’s happened in portfolios?

In equities, our quality focused managers have outperformed the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) over the last 30 days. Morgan Stanley Global Brands and Fundsmith Equity were the standout funds, helped by their bias to bellwether defensive sectors, such as consumer staples and healthcare stocks.

In fixed Income, yields have been falling as investors had priced in a slowdown in the pace of interest rate rises. The week of 5 December saw the 10-year yield fall to its lowest level over the past three months. This has been very supportive of bonds, particularly longer duration funds, as when yields fall, prices rise which makes the longer duration assets more attractive given they were secured at a higher yield. Our longer duration funds both in investment grade credit and government bonds have outperformed their shorter duration counterparts.

Real assets remain an attractive alternative to fixed income with some inflation protection. A highlight was our recent investment in gold via the WisdomTree Core Physical Gold ETC, which performed well over the month on the back of a weaker US dollar and given its safe haven status. The opportunity cost of holding gold, which doesn’t produce a yield, has also fallen as yields have come down.

Alternative strategies continue to provide a credible diversifier. Hipgnosis Songs Fund, our song royalty holding, released it six-month net asset value (NAV) total return which was up 0.7% to the end of September – showing people are continuing to pay for music despite the cost-of-living crisis. This makes a total NAV return of 60% since the company was launched in July 2018. The investment trust has some strong tailwinds and continues to benefit from the structured growth in paid music streaming subscriptions. It has recently been boosted by UK retailer John Lewis using one of its songs in its latest Christmas advertising campaign and, of course, its ownership of Mariah Carey’s No. 1 hit ‘All I want for Christmas is You’!

What's happening this week?

14 December • US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision | 15 December • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision | 15 December • EU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Bloomberg, (2) Reuters, (3) Morningstar, (4) US Bureau of Labor Statistics and (5) Europa.eu

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

31 Jan

   |   4½ mins

The week of 23 January 2023 saw mixed, but marginally better, economic data. Equities continued their positive run as inflation appears to be cooling and investors hope for signs of a softer landing in 2023.

Investing

UN COP15 Biodiversity Conference – a ‘historic’ deal is reached to protect nature

24 Jan

   |   2½ mins

The recent UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) saw nations from around the world agree on a package of measures designed to tackle the perilous loss of biodiversity and restore natural ecosystems by 2030. Madhushree Agarwal reflects on how this global framework could support investors in redirecting capital towards more sustainable endeavours.

Investing

The week in review

24 Jan

   |   4½ mins

Signs of cooling inflation continue but investors and policymakers are at odds over the outlook for interest rates. Central banks remain intent on staying the course on monetary policy, despite investor expectations for a reversal.

Investing

2022 global market review

17 Jan

   |   5½ mins

2022 was an extremely challenging year with disappointing equity and bond market returns. High and rising inflation through most of the year led central banks around the world to raise interest rates sharply and put downward pressure on almost all asset classes.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.

 

We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Please call us today on +44 (0)1624 645000. Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

 

Or please complete and submit the below form and one of the team will get back to you as requested.

* Required fields

Search suggestions