z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

2021 global market review

From a market perspective, 2021 was an eventful year punctuated by several key themes: reflation, inflation, vaccines, variants and hawks. Read the review.
Published 18 January
4 mins

From a market perspective 2021 was without doubt an eventful, albeit financially rewarding, year. If history books mark 2020 as the year that saw the first pandemic in over 100 years to turn truly ‘global’ – with all the uncertainty (and market volatility) that ensued – then 2021 will likely be marked as the year society learned to both live with and fight against COVID-19. Indeed the same can be said of the markets where an increasing dislocation was seen as the year progressed between COVID-19 related ‘bad news’ and market reaction. Investors were perhaps looking through the shorter term noise to the bigger picture and the global economy after COVID-19. But the year was punctuated by several key themes: reflation, inflation, vaccines, variants and hawks.

The year started very much on a reflationary footing (fiscal and monetary policy designed to expand output and effectively support and drive the economic reopening following the pandemic lockdowns of 2020) fuelled in no small part by the inauguration of President Biden and the simultaneous shift in control of the Senate following state elections in Georgia. With the Democrats in control of both sides of Congress, the passage through for the American Rescue Plan Act was made significantly easier. This included US$1.9 trillion of additional stimulus (later scaled back) with a focus on infrastructure spending and environmental responsibility. All part of the ‘build back better’ slogan that carried Biden to the White House. This was supported by wider monetary and fiscal policy seen as accommodative to economic expansion and a shift in rhetoric from central banks, moving from inflation to employment as the key point of focus. Inflation, it was felt, would be under control.

In parallel to this, while infection levels remained high, a broader rollout of vaccines globally provided optimism over the pandemic and led to a very strong first quarter to the year for equity markets. This was countered by a more challenging period for fixed income assets, and particularly those with longer dated maturities.

With Q2 came the Delta variant, a more transmissible strain against which several vaccines proved less effective. This caused something of a setback for markets as investors feared a derailment of the reflationary effort and delay to the vaccine-led recovery. Q2 also saw inflation move front and centre with mixed views as to just how transitory it would prove to be. Commodity prices were rising, with a particular focus on energy, and with input prices rising generally this was having a broader impact on inflation. This rolled into Q3, now with added concerns around the logistical challenges feeding through to further price rises. In short, pent up demand meeting supply deficits, with the wrong goods in the wrong place at the wrong time, and a labour supply squeeze created a backlog to the global movement of materials. Issues around a snowballing debt crisis at China’s property giant Evergrande Group and growing regulatory oversight from the Chinese government proved an unwanted distraction to markets, albeit that fears of debt contagion subsided swiftly and the focus shifted back to inflation.

To this backdrop expectations moved to a more hawkish sentiment from central banks, looking to curb inflation by dialling back on monetary and ultimately fiscal policy, consensus now clearly anticipating several rate hikes in 2022 and evidence of a more aggressive asset purchase tapering. With the advent of Q4, the Omicron variant emerged with evidence of significantly higher transmissibility (than Delta) but without information on severity. Markets weakened as new restrictions were imposed across multiple countries and the reality loomed large of an extended period of life with COVID-19 and what this might mean for the economic recovery. You only need to look at the impact on travel stocks to see the direction of thinking. But with the closing stages to the year came early evidence of reduced severity from the now dominant variant and, coupled with a surge in vaccine booster programmes across the developed world, renewed optimism that the recovery would remain on track.  

But how has this translated to financial markets given the strong rebound seen in late 2020?

In truth it has been a good year for risk assets, and specifically developed market equities, but also other asset classes linked to the economic reopening, while traditionally more defensive assets have struggled. To equities first and the global index (MSCI ACWI) saw an increase of 20.9% on the year. This was led by the US which rose by 26.5% over the period, with Europe (ex UK) not far behind up 22.6%. This is in stark contrast to emerging markets which posted a very slight loss on the year at -0.2%. As mentioned previously, commodities saw strong returns on the year with the broad commodity index up some 27%, with oil leading the way up more than 60%. This is in contrast to the classic safe-haven of gold, falling by 4% over the year. To extend the view on real assets, property also performed well in 2021 with the developed market REIT index up 27.2% on the year.

Turning finally to fixed income markets, it was difficult to find any bright spots unless linked to either inflation (index linked) or risk (high yield), or managed to avoid duration (longer maturity). The Barclays Global Aggregate index fell by 1.5% over the year while the Merrill Lynch Global High Yield index rose 2.8%. The FTSE All Stocks UK Index Linked Index was up 4.2% over the year while, in contrast, the equivalent UK Gilt Index fell 5.2%.

INDEXEND NOVEMBER VALUEEND DECEMBER VALUE
FTSE 1007059.457384.54
DJ Ind. Average34483.7236338.30
S&P Composite45674766.18
Nasdaq 10016135.9216320.08
Nikkei27821.7628791.71
£/$1.32991.3532
€/£0.852530.84133
€/$1.13381.1370
£ Base Rate0.10.25
Brent Crude69.2377.78
Gold1774.521829.20

This month’s values quoted as at 31/12/2021. The above values are sourced from Bloomberg and are quoted in the relevant currency.

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private bankers directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events or call +44 (0)1624 645000 and speak to our client services team.

 

If you would like to find out more about how we help manage clients’ investments, please also contact us on the number above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Investments can go down, as well as up, to the extent that you might get back less than the total you originally invested. Exchange rates also impact the value of your investments. Past performance is no guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned here may not be suitable, and is included for information only and is not a recommendation. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

about the author

Tom Caddick

Tom Caddick

Tom was appointed in March 2021 and brings to the table over 20 years’ investment experience. Prior to joining, he was at Santander Asset Management in London for nine years, where he was, most recently, the chief investment officer for its UK business, having previously been the global head of the multi asset division. Tom also spent several years as head of multi manager and fund selection at LV Asset Management.

Tom sits within Nedgroup Investments, a sister company, which provides investment advice, research and portfolio modelling solutions to Nedbank Private Wealth. Here, he heads up the London-based investment team. It is in this capacity that he is a member of Nedbank Private Wealth’s investment committee.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

29 Nov

   |   5 mins

Economic news was mixed but signs of a weaker US economy raised expectations of a slowing pace of interest rate hikes. While in the UK and Europe business activity contracted for another month fuelling recession fears.

The 18th issue of our client magazine is out now

28 Nov

   |   <20 mins

The latest issue of Opportunity focuses on the benefits of wealth planning, the future for purposeful investing, and how to get the most out of foreign exchange, plus all our recent company news.

Investing

The week in review

22 Nov

   |   4 mins

The week of 14 November saw markets cool slightly following the previous week’s rally, as investors searched for signs of a potential economic slowdown and that inflation may have peaked.

Investing

Investment seminar

18 Nov

   |   50¾ mins

In this investment seminar, we reflected on the market stimuli in 2022, as well as the positioning of our investment outlook for 2023 and the opportunities which may arise.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.


We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Please call us today on +44 (0)1624 645000. Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

 

Or please complete and submit the below form and one of the team will get back to you as requested.

* Required fields

Search suggestions