z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

The week in review

The week of 21 June saw a relatively quiet week, with stock markets in the positive and a news cycle dominated by the Federal Reserve meeting and its plans to support the world’s largest economy.
Published 28 June
2 mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
 1WK1MO3MOYTD1YR3YR5YR
FTSE All Share1.721.687.7212.5423.372.997.80
Euro Stoxx 500.992.209.1218.2131.5110.1311.67
S&P 5002.762.339.8814.7840.9918.1518.23
Japan Topix0.832.261.339.8428.416.8112.77
MSCI Asia Pac.1.282.085.636.5339.3412.3415.71
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.1.422.857.737.7540.5011.7214.35
Jo’burg All Shares0.930.292.6913.1326.109.288.42
UK Gov’t Bonds-0.640.36-0.34-6.15-7.122.992.36
US Gov’t Bonds-0.570.150.81-3.02-3.544.572.18
Global Corp. Bonds-0.470.681.84-1.353.426.654.79
Emerg. Mkt. Local Currency Bonds0.630.013.75-3.116.004.874.15

Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 25/6/2021.

While headlines on the pandemic still pervade, and particularly due to the Delta variant, economic growth seems to be reasserting itself more strongly. The data backing up this view was the flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) numbers, which aim to flag whether business conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. As such, the direction being seen by these managers is one of expansion, with the stellar number that of the Eurozone, where the composite PMI rose to a 15-year high of 59.2 in June. The increases came against slight drops in the UK as the composite PMI for June came in at 61.7, down slightly from a record high of 62.9 in May, and down more in the US, which fell from 68.7 in May to 63.

The reason for the US figure was noted as inflation, which, against the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) yardstick of US core personal consumption expenditure, increased 3.4% year-on-year, its largest annual increase since 1992. This prompted the latest accommodative (aka dovish) statement by the chair of the Fed, Jay Powell, that it would not act “pre-emptively” on “the possible onset of inflation”, but rather “will wait for actual evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances”.

Positive news for the US economy came in the form of the bipartisan US$1.2 trillion agreement to renew the nation’s physical transport (e.g. roads, bridges and rail) and digital (broadband) infrastructure, as well as help stimulate the economy. And while the bill fell short of the inclusion of climate change and social support, President Joe Biden plans to pursue his ‘human’ priorities through a bill passing through the senate using the reconciliation process, which only requires Democrats voting.

The Bank of England also left rates unchanged and voted 8:1 to maintain the current bond purchases programme as is. And while the previous meeting’s minutes highlighted more dissent than just that of the chief economist, Andy Haldane, as the inflation rate is set to exceed 3% in the coming months, the view remains that the central bank should avoid “premature tightening”, as it toughened its language on the need to maintain stimulus.

In markets, developed markets (+2%) performed in line with emerging markets (+2%) over the past 30 days. Style-wise, growth stocks (+4%) crept back into favour versus value (0%) versus the same period 30 days prior. Energy (+6%) and information technology (+5%) were the best performing sectors on a 30 day basis, versus materials (-2%) and utilities (-2%). Small capitalisation stocks posted +2% returns for the past 30 days, matching the +2% for large capitalisation stocks.

ECONOMICS  
 Latest

Consensus

Forecast

UK GDP (QoQ)-1.5 -1.5
UK PMI61.7 
UK CPI (YoY)2.1 –
EU GDP (QoQ)-0.3 –
EU PMI59.2
EU CPI (YoY)2.0 –
US GDP (QoQ)6.4
US PMI64.063.5
US CPI (YoY)5.0 –

What’s happened in portfolios?

On the fixed income front, we are pleased that although yields have been falling over the short term, our overweight tilt to credit risk has helped offset our underweight bias to duration risk.

Among our alternative investments, property remained solid but saw a relatively quiet week for an asset that we see as a valuable way to shield portfolios from inflation risk. Meanwhile, our second strand to the music rights investment arena – Round Hill Music – announced plans to launch a C share class that it hopes will allow it to tap into a US$120 million investment pipeline.

What's happening this week?

30 Jun • UK Gross Domestic Product | 1 Jul • EU Unemployment | 2 Jul • US Nonfarm Payroll

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

 

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Bloomberg; and (2) Reuters.

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

21 Mar

   |   4 mins

The week of 13 March 2023 was another volatile week for markets as further upheaval in the banking sector raised fears of a steeper economic slowdown and hopes of an easing of central bank rate hikes.

Investing

The week in review

14 Mar

   |   4 mins

The week of 6 March 2023 saw markets down sharply, as hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve and strong US jobs data early in the week were eclipsed by events in the financial sector.

Investing

February's investment market commentary

10 Mar

   |   2½ mins

February saw a reversal of some of the strong gains made in the prior month, with both global equity and bond markets falling during the period. Simon Watts explains.

Investing

The week in review

28 Feb

   |   3 mins

The week of 20 February 2023 saw stronger than expected inflation and economic growth reports and a more hawkish stance from central banks, leading to widespread declines in markets.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.

 

We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Please call us today on +44 (0)1624 645000. Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

 

Or please complete and submit the below form and one of the team will get back to you as requested.

* Required fields

Search suggestions