z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

The week in review

US equities rallied on the last day of November after Federal Reserve chair Powell said the pace of monetary tightening could start to slow as soon as December 2022. While in the eurozone, inflation eased for the first time in 17 months.
Published 5 December
4 mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
 1WK1MO3MOYTD1YR3YR5YR
FTSE All Share0.686.234.131.695.394.174.23
Euro Stoxx 500.4510.0312.64-4.320.116.115.72
S&P 5001.198.544.21-13.28-9.6211.1310.95
Japan Topix-3.170.702.330.554.146.984.13
MSCI Asia Pac.4.3815.350.65-18.83-19.101.210.39
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.3.5111.760.69-18.58-18.620.520.04
Jo’burg All Shares1.6510.8112.135.669.7815.128.52
UK Gov’t Bonds-1.101.62-1.58-20.90-22.95-6.94-2.58
US Gov’t Bonds1.523.97-0.89-10.95-11.41-2.120.24
Global Corp. Bonds1.405.430.64-12.47-12.57-1.830.98
Emerg. Mkt. Local2.067.722.32-11.01-10.32-4.01-1.30
Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 5/12/2022.

The week of 28 November was positive in terms of economic data, particularly from the US and eurozone.

The US labour market remains resilient and an area of focus for the Federal Reserve (Fed). US nonfarm payroll data for November showed the economy added 263,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of around 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings from the report were also higher than expected, rising by 0.6%. Despite this, investors picked up on a statement from Fed chair Jerome Powell, during a speech to the Brookings Institution, that “the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting”. This prompted a rally in US equity markets on Wednesday 30 November and drove US Treasury yields lower. Although Powell qualified his statement by saying it was likely that restoring price stability would require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time, as history cautions against loosening policy prematurely.

The eurozone saw inflation slow for the first time in 17 months as the consumer price index for the year to November came in at 10.0%, down from 10.6% in October and below the 10.4% expected. This was helped particularly by a slowdown in energy and services prices. Economists now anticipate that the European Central Bank will also move towards less aggressive interest rate rises.

UK inflation remains high at 11.1%, although the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill said on Wednesday that he expected to see price growth in the UK start falling next year, assuming natural gas prices start to stabilise and then start to drop.

In other news, the threat of Russian gas restrictions was avoided. While in China, widespread protests raised further hopes of an easing in pandemic restrictions. Vice-premier Sun Chunlan, China’s top zero-Covid enforcer, said the fight against the virus had reached a “new stage”. Meanwhile, despite an uncertain supply outlook, OPEC+ decided to hold production steady.

The dovish comments from Fed chair Powell ignited a strong, broad-based rally in US risk assets and fixed income markets last week. Emerging markets (+13.0%) remained ahead of developed markets (+7.8%) over the short term, following the signs of an easing of restrictions in China. In terms of style, growth stocks (+9.0%) outperformed value (+7.8%), while large capitalisation stocks (+8.4%) took a lead over small capitalisation stocks (+7.04%) over the last 30 days. Materials (+14.5%) retained its position as the best performing sector, while energy (+2.3%) was the worst performer. Consumer discretionary (+7.9%) and technology stocks (+8.9%) were both up on the previous week.

In the fixed income markets, yields were down over the last month, particularly at the long end.

The US dollar remained weak and closed out its worst monthly performance in a decade.

ECONOMICS  
 Latest

Consensus

Forecast

UK GDP (QoQ)-0.2
UK PMI48.248.3
UK CPI (YoY)11.1
EU GDP (QoQ)0.20.2
EU PMI47.847.8
EU CPI (YoY)10.0
US GDP (QoQ)2.9
US PMI54.453.3
US CPI (YoY)7.77.3

What’s happened in portfolios?

There was no real change in terms of positioning and portfolio themes.

The talk of an easing in China’s Covid-19 policy and the recent weakness of the US dollar has been supportive for emerging markets and beneficial for our active exposure holding, TT Emerging Markets Equity Fund which has performed well.

In terms of fixed income, our longer duration focus within the portfolio, which includes global government bonds and investment grade bonds, has done particularly well over the last 30 days. This is on the back of the recent trend, over the last couple of months, for falling yields, which remain at quite high levels but are starting to pull back. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Under real assets, JLEN Environmental Assets Group, formerly John Laing Environmental Fund, reported its quarterly net asset value (NAV) last week, which was impressive overall, up by 1.1%, after accounting for the effects of the UK windfall tax. It also incorporated an increase in the discount rate, as we have seen gilts, in particular, rise since the last quarter. The result was supported by higher short-term power prices and a slight increase in inflation assumptions.

In our alternative strategies, Princess Private Equity announced a reduction in its monthly NAV, down 1.3%. The underlying companies have performed well, and valuations have increased but they were offset by the unrealised loss on the foreign exchange translation, following higher currency hedging costs. However, a decent result overall for the holding.

What's happening this week?

 5 December • UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (Nov) | 5 December • EU S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (Nov) | 9 December • US Producer Price Inflation (Nov)

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Bloomberg, (2) Reuters, (3) Financial Times, (4) US Bureau of Labor Statistics and (5) Federal Reserve Board

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

23 May

   |   4 mins

During the week of 15 May 2023, investor sentiment was buoyed by a more positive tone in the US debt ceiling negotiations. But continued tightness in labour markets prompted more hawkish comments from central banks on their determination to reduce inflation.

Investing

The week in review

16 May

   |   4 mins

The week of 8 May 2023 was a mixed week for markets. US equities and bonds advanced as investor confidence grew following better than expected inflation data. However, weaker data releases renewed fears of a slowdown and led to a risk-off sentiment.

Investing

April's investment market commentary

12 May

   |   3 mins

April was a quieter month for markets as attention focused on further rate increases, given stronger economic data and signs of more persistent inflation. Simon Watts explains.

Investing

Quarterly Investment Report

28 Apr

   |   60 mins

During the programme, we covered an overview of the markets and how we are managing our clients' investments, how we help our clients fulfil their borrowing needs, and how to avoid emotions getting in the way of your plans.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.

 

We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Please call us today on +44 (0)1624 645000. Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

 

Or please complete and submit the below form and one of the team will get back to you as requested.

* Required fields

Search suggestions