The week in review

In the week of 2 August, the US economy received a strong boost as the US Labor Department’s unemployment report revealed employers had taken on more workers in July than for nearly twelve months, and wages had continued to rise. UK and Eurozone manufacturers reported a further month of solid growth.

Investing

Nedbank Private Wealth

Published 10 August

3 mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
	1WK	1MO	3MO	YTD	1YR	3YR	5YR
FTSE All Share	1.56	0.92	2.07	13.40	25.49	2.67	5.83
Euro Stoxx 50	2.08	3.15	5.22	19.92	31.96	9.36	10.42
S&P 500	0.96	2.24	5.97	19.11	34.51	18.02	17.42
Japan Topix	1.49	-1.28	0.23	8.11	27.18	6.10	11.03
MSCI Asia Pac.	1.34	-4.48	-4.11	-0.23	17.33	10.44	11.94
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.	1.18	-3.70	-2.72	1.46	19.31	9.23	10.67
Jo’burg All Shares	-0.43	4.37	1.75	17.44	22.33	9.97	8.89
UK Gov’t Bonds	-0.36	1.39	3.18	-3.40	-4.30	3.85	1.93
US Gov’t Bonds	-0.40	0.35	1.62	-1.65	-3.42	5.08	2.40
Global Corp. Bonds	-0.41	0.32	2.13	-0.05	1.53	6.76	4.64
Emerg. Mkt. Local	-0.65	-0.12	-0.37	-4.26	2.58	4.14	3.05

Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 6/8/2021.

The week of 2 August’s highlight was the much anticipated US unemployment report, which showed the labour market is making more robust steps towards a full recovery and the economy is strengthening. The US added 943,000 jobs in July, the highest number of new jobs in nearly a year, topping the expected figure of 870,000. And the unemployment rate declined faster than forecasted, dropping to 5.4%.

On the pandemic front, COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations continue to rise in the US, mainly as a result of the highly transmissible Delta variant. These cases are mostly among the unvaccinated, despite incentive measures to encourage vaccine uptake. However, the Biden administration is also keen to start lifting travel restrictions, to boost the airline and travel industries, and is developing a plan that will require nearly all foreign visitors to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Final July purchasing managers’ index readings from around the world saw UK and Eurozone manufacturers report a further month of solid growth, of 59.2 and 60.2 respectively for the composite readings. This is a decline from the recent record highs as more businesses are experiencing growth constraints due to supply shortages of labour and materials.

The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates at historic lows and its bond-buying programme unchanged. However, it did signal that some modest tightening in the medium term would be necessary to meet its 2% inflation target, leading to Sterling strengthening against the US Dollar, although this would not take place until more of the 1.9 million workers still furloughed were back at work. Its monetary policy committee also increased its forecast for peak inflation and expects it to hit a 10-year high of 4% in the final quarter of 2021, before falling back. This forecast is significantly higher than the bank’s May estimate of peak inflation at 2.5%, which was reached in June and forced the bank to rethink its tactics.

In separate news, the UK government is now looking to recommend the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines for those aged 16 and 17.

In terms of equities performance over the last 30 days, emerging markets (-3%) continued to trade weaker amid dampened sentiment due to the spread of the Delta variant and low vaccination rates. Meanwhile, developed markets (+2%) have been led by a mix of cyclical and growth stocks, with both value and growth, as well as large and small capitalisation stocks, performing in line with each other (+1%). Financials (+3%) has been the outperforming sector, with information technology (+2%) also doing well as corporates carry on announcing better than expected earnings in Q2.

In the fixed income market over the past 30 days, the general risk-off environment with the spread of the Delta variant has meant government bonds, in particular longer-dated paper, have been the relatively better area as yields have slightly fallen. This has translated to better quality investment grade credit outperforming high yield, as spreads have also widened in this area.

In commodities, oil prices have fallen recently on worries that the Delta variant would continue to disrupt and slow the global recovery, particularly in the emerging markets.

ECONOMICS
	Latest	Consensus Forecast
UK GDP (QoQ)	-1.6	4.8
UK PMI	59.2	–
UK CPI (YoY)	2.5	–
EU GDP (QoQ)	2.0	–
EU PMI	60.2	–
EU CPI (YoY)	2.2	–
US GDP (QoQ)	6.5	–
US PMI	64.1	–
US CPI (YoY)	5.4	5.3

What’s happened in portfolios?

As we detailed in the most recent investment webinar, we’ve taken more control over our regional allocation, particularly within the equity space, which led to more of an overweight into the UK and Europe (ex UK). This has benefited us over the short term as both of these regions have seen strong performance.

In fixed income, rising yields helped our relative performance, particularly given our short duration bias, a lot of which has been driven by the US unemployment report on Friday 6 August coming in a lot better than expected.

There was positive news in the property space, with a number of net asset value (NAV) announcements due to the Q2 earnings season coming through. Our two healthcare funds, Impact and Target, both announced a high uplift in their valuations as they reported solid rental collection across the period. A number of revenues within property are inflation protected so, given we are seeing slightly higher inflation numbers, we are able to benefit from that.

Over in the renewables sector, both the John Laing Environmental Assets Group and Greencoat UK Wind have announced solid NAV increases, which are partly driven by the fact we’ve seen higher energy prices over the short term. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a slight reduction in NAV for The Renewable Infrastructure Group, after changes in the UK corporate tax rate were accounted for.

What's happening this week?

11 Aug • US Consumer Price Index | 12 Aug • UK Gross Domestic Product | 13 Aug • EU Balance of Trade

We regularly publish investment updates, as well as host quarterly webinars to explain what’s happening in financial markets or how you can manage your wealth. Just submit your email address to receive the updates in your inbox.

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Bloomberg; and (2) Reuters.

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

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The week in review

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The week in review

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