z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

The week in review

Rising petrol prices, inflation, interest rates and COVID-19 immunity headlined the week of 18 October’s list of important themes. Meanwhile, with Q3 earnings season in full swing, 85% of corporates have outperformed expectations, underscoring a strong period of returns.
Share on facebook
Share on linkedin
Share on twitter
Share on email
Published 26 October
5½ mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
 1WK1MO3MOYTD1YR3YR5YR
FTSE All Share-0.350.824.0315.0029.865.765.27
Euro Stoxx 500.201.133.5620.7235.4112.799.76
S&P 5001.663.494.4222.3833.5320.2618.41
Japan Topix-1.07-1.345.9113.0126.098.1710.39
MSCI Asia Pac.1.582.97-3.03-0.0113.1513.8211.25
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.0.752.58-1.892.0616.4212.4310.08
Jo’burg All Shares0.126.221.8317.3827.5412.598.97
UK Gov’t Bonds-0.33-3.39-4.66-7.73-6.262.801.58
US Gov’t Bonds-0.37-1.94-1.74-3.08-2.874.912.25
Global Corp. Bonds-0.42-1.84-1.57-1.411.186.564.26
Emerg. Mkt. Local-1.04-2.47-2.88-7.02-0.893.922.49

Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 22/10/2021.

From an economic standpoint, the week of 18 October brought signs of regained momentum in both the US and UK on the back of encouraging forward-looking flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data. The IHS Markit US composite PMI rose to 57.3, up from 55.0 in September, and the IHS Markit/CIPS UK composite PMI rose to a three-month high of 56.8 in October, versus 54.9 for the previous month. These numbers were in contrast to the fall in flash Eurozone composite PMI to 54.3, a six-month low and a continuation of the trend of slowing growth in the region, although activity remains firmly in growth territory.

The flash PMI data comes at a time when the Bank of England has been keen to signal a rise in interest rates to safeguard against inflationary expectations, with markets pricing in a hike at the next meeting on 4 November 2021.

And although not an immediate indicator of inflationary risk, it is worth noting that September’s lower than expected UK consumer price index figure of 3.1% does not include the recent rise in oil prices and the knock-on impact on the country’s highest ever petrol prices – the implications for which are being closely scrutinised.

Despite this economic uncertainty, we’re seeing strong Q3 earnings figures coming through, with around 85% of the companies that have reported beating expectations with above-trend earnings growth.

Finally, as economies continue to edge into recovery mode after the pandemic, there was positive news on vaccine boosters, as a study conducted by two labs found a booster dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine was 95.6% effective against symptoms of the disease.

With a strong start to Q3 earnings season underway, we saw a broadly positive period for riskier assets, with developed and emerging markets (+1%) matching the returns of growth and value stocks over the previous 30-day period. Taking an industry focus, cyclical sectors outperformed, with real estate (+3%) leading the way. Oil continues its upward trajectory towards a multi-year high. Fixed income yields are also shifting upwards, due to a mix of the ‘risk on’ tone in markets, the spectre of inflation and central bank rhetoric around rising interest rates.

ECONOMICS  
 Latest

Consensus

Forecast

UK GDP (QoQ)5.5
UK PMI56.8
UK CPI (YoY)3.1
EU GDP (QoQ)2.12.1
EU PMI54.3
EU CPI (YoY)3.4
US GDP (QoQ)6.72.8
US PMI61.961.3
US CPI (YoY)5.4

What’s happened in portfolios?

Looking across our portfolios, we continue to see a supportive environment for equities. However, with some signs of growth moderating, our preference remains for domestic developed markets – specifically pan-Europe – where economies are reopening and valuations are not stretched on a relative basis.

We also continue to see a less conducive environment for fixed income assets, where starting yields are at historically low levels and inflation poses a clear threat to mid to longer-duration positioning. And real assets remain attractive, in our view, as an alternative to fixed income given they offer some protection against inflation – protection which is positively correlated given yields typically rise as interest rates do. Infrastructure is of particular interest, given current valuations and the sector’s recovery potential.

What's happening this week?

27 Oct • UK Autumn Budget | 28 Oct • EU Consumer Confidence | 28 Oct • US Q3 QoQ GDP (advance estimate)

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

 

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Bloomberg; (2) Reuters; and (3) IHS Markit.

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

29 Nov

   |   5 mins

Forward-looking economic data signalled stronger growth in the last full week of November, but concerns over a new COVID-19 variant quickly clouded the outlook.

Investing

The week in review

16 Nov

   |   5 mins

Global inflation dominated news headlines during the week of 8 November, with US prices rising at their fastest rate since 1990, up 6.2% annually, in the face of persistent supply shortages - supply issues that also impacted UK Q3 economic growth.

Investing

What happened in financial markets in October 2021

9 Nov

   |   6 mins

Marking the first in a new series of monthly videos, Rebecca Cretney spoke to Tom Caddick about the positive and negative news affecting financial markets during October 2021 and what that meant for clients’ investment portfolios.

Investing

The week in review

9 Nov

   |   3 mins

Optimism around a strong Q3 earnings season and rising US employment created a positive environment for riskier assets and equities in the week of 1 November.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.

 

We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Please call us today on +44 (0)1624 645000. Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

 

Or please complete and submit the below form and one of the team will get back to you as requested.

* Required fields

Search suggestions