| KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change) | |||||||
| 1WK | 1MO | 3MO | YTD | 1YR | 3YR | 5YR | |
| FTSE All Share | -0.60 | 2.03 | 4.48 | 4.93 | 41.47 | 3.11 | 6.22 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 0.12 | 3.40 | 8.61 | 8.39 | 60.56 | 7.59 | 8.23 |
| S&P500 | -0.74 | 0.30 | 5.89 | 4.54 | 65.23 | 15.13 | 16.03 |
| Japan Topix | 3.14 | 4.35 | 12.40 | 11.54 | 60.62 | 7.89 | 10.87 |
| MSCI Asia Pac. | -0.73 | -6.95 | 7.25 | 4.40 | 78.80 | 8.64 | 14.80 |
| MSCI Emerg. Mkts. | -0.80 | -6.38 | 5.89 | 3.73 | 78.71 | 6.42 | 13.10 |
| Jo’burg All Shares | -2.99 | -1.42 | 11.30 | 12.01 | 79.03 | 7.85 | 7.52 |
| UK Gov’t Bonds | -0.09 | -1.30 | -6.48 | -7.13 | 0.15 | 2.82 | 2.99 |
| US Gov’t Bonds | -0.30 | -1.93 | -4.04 | -4.34 | -1.72 | 4.27 | 2.32 |
| Global Corp. Bonds | -0.17 | -1.92 | -3.17 | -3.65 | 13.44 | 5.75 | 4.92 |
| Emerg. Mkt. Local Currency Bonds | 0.06 | -3.63 | -5.23 | -5.31 | 16.21 | 1.28 | 3.92 |
Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 19/3/2021.
The Fed’s latest forecasts, released on Wednesday 17 March, show the central bank expects rates to remain on hold until 2024, even as inflation is projected to move above its 2% target, to make up for the past when inflation undershot the target. Meanwhile, its other 2021 US forecasts see unemployment falling to 4.5%, gross domestic product expanding by 6.5%, and inflation spiking to 2.4%, before dropping back to 2% in 2022.
In political news, the start of a third wave in Europe led to several countries announcing another lockdown and increased criticism of the EU’s vaccination programme, which lags that of the UK and US, and was made worse by the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine on safety concerns. The European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, has, therefore, refused to rule out imposing export controls on vaccines destined for other customers, including the UK.
| ECONOMICS | ||
| Latest | Consensus Forecast | |
| UK GDP (QoQ) | 1.0 | – |
| UK PMI | 49.6 | 51.1 |
| UK CPI (YoY) | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| EU GDP (QoQ) | -0.7 | – |
| EU PMI | 48.8 | 49.1 |
| EU CPI (YoY) | 0.9 | – |
| US GDP (QoQ) | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| US PMI | 55.3 | – |
| US CPI (YoY) | 1.7 | – |
Markets continue to be torn as to how much they should be worried about the pandemic, while the S&P 500 closed the week of 15 March only very slightly lower than its latest all-time high on Wednesday 17 March. Investors, meanwhile, also do not appear too overly concerned, for now, as to the increasing bond yields, perhaps reflecting an understanding that some of the move higher in yields is as a result of stronger growth expectations.
US 10-year bond yields finished the week up +0.1% higher at 1.72%, with much of the move following the Fed meeting, although markets suggest investors still expect the Fed to tighten conditions sooner than 2024, in order to deal with a potential spike in inflation.
25 Mar • US Initial Jobless Claims | 26 Mar • UK Retail Sales | 26 Mar • US Personal Income
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Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Reuters; (2) US Department of Labor; and (3) Bloomberg.
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