z-kolkiemz-kolkiem

The week in review

Markets remained fixated on government yields as the week of 15 March saw the seventh consecutive weekly rise in US Treasury yields, its longest climb since February 2018.
Share on facebook
Share on linkedin
Share on twitter
Share on email
Published 23 March
2 mins

What’s happened in markets?

KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (% change)
 1WK1MO3MOYTD1YR3YR5YR
FTSE All Share-0.602.034.484.9341.473.116.22
Euro Stoxx 500.123.408.618.3960.567.598.23
S&P500-0.740.305.894.5465.2315.1316.03
Japan Topix3.144.3512.4011.5460.627.8910.87
MSCI Asia Pac.-0.73-6.957.254.4078.808.6414.80
MSCI Emerg. Mkts.-0.80-6.385.893.7378.716.4213.10
Jo’burg All Shares-2.99-1.4211.3012.0179.037.857.52
UK Gov’t Bonds-0.09-1.30-6.48-7.130.152.822.99
US Gov’t Bonds-0.30-1.93-4.04-4.34-1.724.272.32
Global Corp. Bonds-0.17-1.92-3.17-3.6513.445.754.92
Emerg. Mkt. Local Currency Bonds0.06-3.63-5.23-5.3116.211.283.92

Figures in the respective local currencies as at the end of trading on 19/3/2021.

The Fed’s latest forecasts, released on Wednesday 17 March, show the central bank expects rates to remain on hold until 2024, even as inflation is projected to move above its 2% target, to make up for the past when inflation undershot the target. Meanwhile, its other 2021 US forecasts see unemployment falling to 4.5%, gross domestic product expanding by 6.5%, and inflation spiking to 2.4%, before dropping back to 2% in 2022.

The economic data highlight of the week was the US retail sales figure for February, which showed a larger-than-expected fall, while January’s reading was revised up, offering a view that the overall economic picture is better than headline numbers suggest.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England left rates unchanged. However, its committee stated that it was more optimistic about the near-term outlook, given global growth had been “a little stronger” than anticipated … and that the new US stimulus “should provide significant additional support to the outlook.”

In political news, the start of a third wave in Europe led to several countries announcing another lockdown and increased criticism of the EU’s vaccination programme, which lags that of the UK and US, and was made worse by the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine on safety concerns. The European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, has, therefore, refused to rule out imposing export controls on vaccines destined for other customers, including the UK.

In markets, most regions posted negative performance, apart from Japan (+3.08%) and Europe ex UK (+0.39%). Style-wise, value (+0.22%) marginally outperformed growth (-0.49%). Among sectors, healthcare (+1.14%) and consumer staples (+1.09%) were the best, while energy (-5.20%) and materials (-1.18%) lagged. Small capitalisation stocks (-0.36%) slightly underperformed their large peers (-0.17%).
ECONOMICS  
 Latest

Consensus

Forecast

UK GDP (QoQ)1.0 –
UK PMI49.651.1
UK CPI (YoY)0.70.8
EU GDP (QoQ)-0.7 –
EU PMI48.849.1
EU CPI (YoY)0.9 –
US GDP (QoQ)4.14.2
US PMI55.3 –
US CPI (YoY)1.7 –

What’s happened in portfolios?

Markets continue to be torn as to how much they should be worried about the pandemic, while the S&P 500 closed the week of 15 March only very slightly lower than its latest all-time high on Wednesday 17 March. Investors, meanwhile, also do not appear too overly concerned, for now, as to the increasing bond yields, perhaps reflecting an understanding that some of the move higher in yields is as a result of stronger growth expectations.

US 10-year bond yields finished the week up +0.1% higher at 1.72%, with much of the move following the Fed meeting, although markets suggest investors still expect the Fed to tighten conditions sooner than 2024, in order to deal with a potential spike in inflation.

It’s also worth highlighting that oil prices fell nearly -7% during the week of 15 March, which weighed heavily on energy stocks. Although there was no obvious single catalyst behind the fall, concerns over the pace of recovery may well have played a role, given the increase in the numbers of COVID-19 cases around the world, which may set back the dates for economies to reopen and the demand for oil to pick up again.

What's happening this week?

25 Mar • US Initial Jobless Claims | 26 Mar • UK Retail Sales | 26 Mar • US Personal Income

Clients of Nedbank Private Wealth can get in touch with their private banker directly to understand how their portfolios are responding to market events, or call +44 (0)1624 645000 to speak to our client services team.

 

If you would like to find out more about how we manage clients’ investments, please contact us on the same number as above. Or you can get in touch using the links to the forms towards the end of this page.

Sources: Nedbank Private Wealth and (1) Reuters; (2) US Department of Labor; and (3) Bloomberg.

The value of investments can fall, as well as rise, and you might not get back the original amount invested. Exchange rate changes affect the value of investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Any individual investment or security mentioned may be included in clients’ portfolios and is referenced for illustrative purposes only, not as a recommendation, not least as it may not be suitable. You should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Access more of our insights

Investing

The week in review

20 Apr

   |   2 mins

Looking back at events and financial markets during the week of 12 April, we review the publication of positive economic data and developed equity market outperformance (with the exception of Japan) in the past 30 days.

Investing

March's investment market commentary

14 Apr

   |   3 mins

March, as with the quarter as a whole, posted strong returns for riskier assets. Equity markets continued their rise, albeit with some notable sector rotation along the way, which Tom Caddick’s update explains.

Investing

The week in review

13 Apr

   |   2 mins

With the International Monetary Fund stating that most advanced economies will emerge from the pandemic with little lasting damage, as they have proved more resilient than many expected, we look back ad events and financial markets during the week of 5 April.

Investing

Quarter end investment webinar: opportunities and threats for investors

8 Apr

   |   45 mins

David McFadzean was joined by Tom Caddick to talk through the investment trends from Q1 2021 in financial markets, how these might continue to impact investors and what that meant for portfolios in a session moderated by Karen Bennett.

Get in touch

If you are interested in becoming a client, please complete the form via the ‘become a client’ button below. Alternatively, if you are already a client, or if you have a question about how we help clients in particular circumstances, please use the ‘contact us’ button.

 

We will get back to you as soon as we can during office hours, which are Monday to Friday, 8am to 8pm (UK time), except for UK public holidays.

Become a Client

Thank you for your interest in Nedbank Private Wealth. Please call us on +44 (0)1624 645000 or complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.  Please note: If you are an EU resident, we are unfortunately unable to offer our services to you at present.

* Required fields

Contact Us

Give us a call today on +44 (0)1624 645000 or please complete the requested information and one of our team will get back to you soon. We look forward to speaking with you.

Our office hours are weekdays from 8am to 8pm UK time, except for UK public holidays.

* Required field

Search suggestions

IMPORTANT

Beware of scams using Nedbank Private Wealth’s name.

 

Have you received an email or SMS claiming to be from Nedbank Private Wealth, inviting you to open an account?

 

Don’t be tricked – Nedbank Private Wealth never contacts members of the public directly, and will never use email or text messages to ask you for your bank details or sensitive personal information.

 

We are aware of scams using our name and those of our staff. These are usually intended to convince you to send money to the scammers, who use our name because it sounds legitimate.

 

If you are in any doubt about whether an email or SMS in our name is legitimate, please speak to your private banker, or call the telephone numbers on the “Contact us” page.